How Prediction Markets Work
A prediction market turns opinions into prices. Instead of arguing about what will happen, you put money on it.
The basics
Every market on Suri is a question with a Yes or No answer.
"Will BTC be above $100K on December 31, 2026?"
- Yes shares = you think it will happen
- No shares = you think it won't happen
The price of each share is between ₱0 and ₱1 (displayed as a percentage). If Yes is trading at 72%, the crowd thinks there's a 72% chance it happens.
How prices move
Prices change based on supply and demand — just like stocks.
- More people buy Yes → Yes price goes up, No price goes down
- More people buy No → No price goes up, Yes price goes down
Yes + No always equals 100%. If Yes is at 72%, No is at 28%.
How you make money
| You bought | Outcome | What happens | |---|---|---| | Yes at 40% | Event happens (Yes wins) | You get ₱1 per share. Profit: ₱0.60 per share. | | Yes at 40% | Event doesn't happen (No wins) | Your shares are worth ₱0. Loss: ₱0.40 per share. | | No at 30% | Event doesn't happen (No wins) | You get ₱1 per share. Profit: ₱0.70 per share. |
The lower the price when you buy, the more you make if you're right.
You can also sell early
You don't have to wait for the market to resolve. If you bought Yes at 40% and the price moves to 70%, you can sell your shares for a profit — just like selling a stock.
Two types of markets on Suri
LMSR Markets (most common)
- Prices adjust automatically based on a formula
- You can always buy or sell — there's always liquidity
- The price you see is the price you get (approximately)
Pari-mutuel Markets
- All bets go into a pool
- Winners split the pool proportionally
- You don't know the exact payout until the market closes
- Common for sports events
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